Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?
One-OffCommodities7dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 2, 26, 6:09 PM UTCSep 29, 26, 6:08 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if authoritative sources such as USGS, IEA, or major industry reports confirm that the Zimbabwe export ban causes a reduction in global lithium supply exceeding 10,000 tonnes (kt) on September 29, 2026.
- This includes verified production or export shortfalls directly attributable to the ban, impacting global lithium feedstock availability.
- The threshold of 10 kt is near expected supply impact estimates, reflecting a meaningful disruption given Zimbabwe's role in spodumene supply.
- Minor fluctuations or unrelated supply changes do not count.
- Resolution will rely on official government announcements, mining company disclosures, or recognized market intelligence published on or shortly after the settlement date.
- Zimbabwe's export ban removes a significant portion of global lithium feedstock.
Open markets
CommoditiesPOLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $100+42.5pt100%
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7M
- 24h Vol
- $355.9K
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.440099%
- Above 4.455099%
- Above 4.460099%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $119.6K
- 24h Vol
- $119K
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt35%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt26%
- Before Feb 1, 202712%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.6M
KALSHINatural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $1.09999%
- Above $2.09999%
- Above $1.79999%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $111.3K
- 24h Vol
- $110.9K
KALSHIHow high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- $115.01 or above-2.2pt36%
- $120.01 or above-5.6pt31%
- $125.01 or above-2.7pt27%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Above $4.60+1.0pt67%
- Above $4.80-4.0pt49%
- Above $5.00+3.0pt40%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- US gas prices this week
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 21, 2026
- Colorado gas prices tomorrow
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 22, 2026?
- Florida gas prices tomorrow
- Georgia gas prices tomorrow
- Michigan gas prices tomorrow
- Ohio gas prices tomorrow
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026? resolve?
- Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 29, 2026.
- How is Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if authoritative sources such as USGS, IEA, or major industry reports confirm that the Zimbabwe export ban causes a reduction in global lithium supply exceeding 10,000 tonnes (kt) on September 29, 2026.