Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026?
One-OffCommodities7dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Mar 2, 26, 6:10 PM UTCSep 29, 26, 6:08 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the reported reduction in global lithium supply attributable specifically to the Zimbabwe export ban exceeds 15,000 tonnes on September 29, 2026, as reflected in authoritative industry supply data such as USGS lithium production and trade reports, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, or equivalent reputable sources.
- This threshold is near expected supply impact estimates given Zimbabwe's significant spodumene feedstock contribution and current tightening lithium market conditions.
- The market excludes unrelated supply disruptions and focuses solely on the export ban's direct effect on global lithium availability.
- Zimbabwe's export ban removes a significant portion of global lithium feedstock.
- This affects supply chains and tightens global lithium availability.
- Source: Article
Open markets
CommoditiesPOLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $100+42.5pt100%
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7M
- 24h Vol
- $355.9K
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.440099%
- Above 4.455099%
- Above 4.460099%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $119.6K
- 24h Vol
- $119K
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt35%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt26%
- Before Feb 1, 202712%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.6M
KALSHINatural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $1.09999%
- Above $2.09999%
- Above $1.79999%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $111.3K
- 24h Vol
- $110.9K
KALSHIHow high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- $115.01 or above-2.2pt36%
- $120.01 or above-5.6pt31%
- $125.01 or above-2.7pt27%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Above $4.60+1.0pt67%
- Above $4.80-4.0pt49%
- Above $5.00+3.0pt40%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- US gas prices this week
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 21, 2026
- Colorado gas prices tomorrow
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 22, 2026?
- Florida gas prices tomorrow
- Georgia gas prices tomorrow
- Michigan gas prices tomorrow
- Ohio gas prices tomorrow
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026? resolve?
- Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 29, 2026.
- How is Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the reported reduction in global lithium supply attributable specifically to the Zimbabwe export ban exceeds 15,000 tonnes on September 29, 2026, as reflected in authoritative industry supply data such as USGS lithium production and trade reports, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, or equivalent reputable sources.