FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 85%
No 85%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.4K
Low liquidityTraders
5
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
PolymarketWill any additional country announce that it is leaving OPEC in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill a country leave NATO this year?
Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts whether any member country will formally announce its withdrawal from the OPEC or OPEC+ alliance by December 31, 2026 (inclusive), after the United Arab Emirates’ exit from this group.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements or statements by the withdrawing country or by OPEC confirming a member’s departure.
- If any country officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC or OPEC+ during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Temporary non-compliance with production quotas, disputes, or informal statements will not count as a departure.
- If official announcements are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international energy news organizations.
Prediction Source Comparison
4 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 7%. The venue spread is about 4 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference 7% · 4 venues · 4 pt venue spread
