Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?
Middle EastOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaLatin America2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.9%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 26, 23, 8:32 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
147 countries are currently party to the 1967 Protocol that extended the Geneva convention signed in 1951 (see the UNHCR website).
- Will any country leave the protocol by Dec 31, 2026?
- This market resolves YES if a party that was previously a party to the protocol decides to leave it.
- If a country splits in two and one country decides not to join within two years after being recognized by the UN, it will count as YES, otherwise, it will not be taken into account.
- If two countries regroup where one was a party of the protocol and the other was not, it will count as YES if the newly form country decides not to be party to the convention.
- The current list is: