Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.7%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 10:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any country leave NATO by which date?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- As of 2026, no member state has rescinded their membership, but this market resolves YES if any NATO member country formally notifies the United States of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty before December 31, 2026.
- A country must send the United States a "notice of denunciation," which the U.S. would then pass on to the other Allies, and after a one-year waiting period, the country would be out.
- The market resolves YES if such notice is formally issued during 2026, regardless of when the one-year waiting period expires.
- Resolution will be verified through official NATO announcements or statements from the withdrawing country's government.
- Considerations
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a country leave NATO this year??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a country leave NATO this year? resolve?
- Will a country leave NATO this year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a country leave NATO this year? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria