Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.9%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 17, 25, 3:43 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027?
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FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
resolves YES if the USA formally files whatever legal and diplomatic paperwork necessary to formally leave the defensive union. this will not resolve NO for an announcement of intention.
Open markets
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+5 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
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+2 more outcomes
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- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves YES if the USA formally files whatever legal and diplomatic paperwork necessary to formally leave the defensive union. this will not resolve NO for an announcement of intention.