Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.2%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 17, 25, 3:43 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any country leave NATO by which date?
PolymarketWhat is the next country to leave NATO?
Manifold MarketsWill a country leave NATO this year?
Manifold MarketsWill any country leave NATO in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
resolves YES if the USA formally files whatever legal and diplomatic paperwork necessary to formally leave the defensive union. this will not resolve NO for an announcement of intention.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.7M
- 24h Vol
- $487.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $111.1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves YES if the USA formally files whatever legal and diplomatic paperwork necessary to formally leave the defensive union. this will not resolve NO for an announcement of intention.