Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.4%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 26, 2:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Follow up to @/ZviMowshowitz/will-something-happen-this-week-in
- Something happening is hereby defined as Zvi making a dedicated blogpost about said AI-related event, similar to OpenAI's Unreleased Model Astra Solves Ten Major Open Mathematics Problems or Further Developments About Internal AI Models Hacking Things, rather than just mentioning it in the regularly-scheduled AI posts.
- Something like The Three AI Pills won't count because its not about a specific event.
- Each week will resolve to "something happened" if: 1) An AI-related event happened that week 2) Zvi made a dedicated post about said event within 14 days of it happening So i.e. if something happens on Aug 12th, it's OK if the post about it comes out any time on or before Aug 26th.
- Market will resolve based off the spirit of the stated criteria, various technicalities won't count.
- The intent is to see whether we're about to approach a "singularity of AI news" where something keeps happening every single week.
