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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Commodities
  3. Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

0.5% (24h)CommoditiesOne-OffGeopolitics6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 26%+0.0%
Market quality

60 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$105

Liquidity

$12.9K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

25.0% / 27.0%

Spread

8.0%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+0.5%

Market data

Updated 10 minutes ago

Apr 28, 26, 5:20 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes26%

KalshiAlso available on Kalshi

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

1.0%6mo
Yes
Yes
+1.0%31%
No
No
69%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$135.1
24h Vol$0.1
KalshiKALSHI

Rules

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC.

Polymarket
  • You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
  • This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
  • Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC.

Polymarket
  • You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
  • This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
  • Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.