PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 12%+0.0%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$36.8
Liquidity
$10.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 13.0%
Spread
30.0%
Wide spread7d Change
+3.0%
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 5:15 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes12%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Futuur
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
5mo
73%
27%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.4
24h Vol$0
FUTUUR
Also available on Kalshi
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
5mo
86%
14%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$17.5K
24h Vol$13.7
KALSHIRules
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
- Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$37Jul 520d of dataJul 26
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On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
- Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.