Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo country 91.1%+0.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 25, 7:45 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
A country leaving the United Nations would be a true political earthquake! Shaking the global order and signaling major shifts in international relations.
- Some countries have openly criticized the UN or even threatened to withdraw.
- But the named outcome has officially left the organization in modern history.
- Which country will be the first to formally withdraw its UN membership between now and January 1, 2027?
- This resolves to the first country that:
- Formally withdraws its membership from the United Nations