PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
October 31 · —
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Stored reference
October 31 6%Leader of 8 outcomes
October 31 6%Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$249.8
Liquidity
$10.2K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$1.1K
Bid / Ask
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October 31Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 7:04 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
October 15Lost
September 11Lost
September 13Lost
September 15Lost
September 18Lost
September 23Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · October 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)
PolymarketHouthis enter Aden by which date?
PolymarketHouthis target Pakistan by which date?
PolymarketHouthis seize an oil tanker by which date?
PolymarketFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
- Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
- Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
- Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.