PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 20%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 20%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$522.4
Liquidity
$22K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$9.5K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-9.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jul 26, 26, 10:32 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NATO article 5 before 2027?
PolymarketWill NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4?
Manifold MarketsWill Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRules
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.
- For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.