Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 22, 3:48 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Another NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketNATO article 5 before 2027?
PolymarketWill NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
KalshiRules
market for Article 4:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-invoke-82682cdecb35)Update 2026-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The trigger is defined as an official action.
- If multiple countries trigger Article 5 at the same time, the market will split resolve between them.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5??
- Manifold Markets prices ---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- at 46% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5? resolve?
- What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: market for Article 4: