Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%Leader of 14 outcomes
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 22, 3:48 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4?
Manifold MarketsWill any other NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsAnother NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketNATO article 5 before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsRules
market for Article 4:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-invoke-82682cdecb35)Update 2026-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The trigger is defined as an official action.
- If multiple countries trigger Article 5 at the same time, the market will split resolve between them.