PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94.1%+1.6pt
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$10.1K
Liquidity
$41K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.3% / 5.7%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-2.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:48 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026?
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PolymarketRules
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.5pt74%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.0pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $660.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 more outcomes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for NATO article 5 before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 94% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does NATO article 5 before 2027? resolve?
- NATO article 5 before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is NATO article 5 before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".