Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.1%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 10:58 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Will the North Atlantic Counsel (NAC) decide before the end of 2026 that an attack on one of the NATO partners fulfilled the criteria to initiate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? This would mean that all NATO partners will have the obligation to collectively defend the attacked NATO partner.
- Market will resolve yes if the NAC publicly states that the NATO will instigate article 5, regardless of actual action undertaken by NATO partners.
- Market will resolve no if no statement has been made before the end of 2026