Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?
GeopoliticsOne-OffCommoditiesChina1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.6%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 4.0 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- UC Rusal is the world's largest primary aluminum producer outside China. 2024 actual production was 3.992 Mt, holding flat through the post-2022 sanction period.
- The 4.0 Mt strike for 2027 reflects steady-state operations; significant deviation up requires meaningful policy or end-market re-routing.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- UC Rusal annual report and interim results https://rusal.ru/en/investors/
