Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
RegulationOne-OffChinaLatin AmericaCommoditiesBusiness & Corporate1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 71.3%
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9
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 4, 26, 5:45 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Alcoa's 2024 Aluminum segment shipments came in at 2.5–2.6 Mt (per the Q4 2024 earnings release), with modest expansion underway at the Pinjarra refinery / smelter complex (Western Australia) and Alumar (Brazil).
- The 2.6 Mt median for 2027 reflects roughly flat operations with small Pinjarra/Alumar contribution; this strike sits at the 50/50 middle of plausible 2027 outcomes.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Alcoa Corporation Q4 2027 / full-year financial release https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases
