Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- China Hongqiao is the world's largest single primary aluminum producer. 2024 capacity was 6.46 Mt, with production close to capacity, after commissioning a new ~500 kt Shandong line in 2024.
- Constrained by China's national 45 Mt smelter capacity cap, growth is limited; the 6.4 Mt strike for 2027 reflects the run-rate without policy easing.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- China Hongqiao Group annual results announcement (HKEx 1378) http://en.hongqiaochina.com/
