Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
RegulationOne-OffChina1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 70.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill US carbon dioxide emmissions exceed 4,950 million metric tons in 2027?
ForecastExWill US carbon dioxide emmissions exceed 4,300 million metric tons in 2027?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 0.7 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Century Aluminum operates Sebree and Mt. Holly (Kentucky/South Carolina), Grundartangi (Iceland), and has the Hawesville smelter idled. 2024 production was 0.69 Mt and shipments 0.678 Mt. The 0.7 Mt strike for 2027 reflects steady-state operations at running smelters; the Century-EGA Inola greenfield (Oklahoma, $4B build, ~600 kt/yr nameplate) targets first metal late 2028 and is not material to 2027.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Century Aluminum 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000949157
- Century Aluminum quarterly earnings releases https://centuryaluminum.com/
