Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-OffCommoditiesBusiness & Corporate1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.8 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Emirates Global Aluminium is the largest non-China primary aluminum producer in the Middle East, with smelters at Jebel Ali and Al Taweelah (UAE). 2024 production was 2.69 Mt — a record, up modestly from 2.66 Mt in 2023.
- The 2.8 Mt strike for 2027 reflects modest UAE-base growth; the Century-EGA Inola JV (Oklahoma) starts contributing from 2028 onward and is not material to 2027.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- EGA annual financial results press release https://www.ega.ae/en/
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes? resolve?
- Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2028.
- How is Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.8 million tonnes.