Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-OffCommoditiesBusiness & Corporate1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 57.4%
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8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.8 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Emirates Global Aluminium is the largest non-China primary aluminum producer in the Middle East, with smelters at Jebel Ali and Al Taweelah (UAE). 2024 production was 2.69 Mt — a record, up modestly from 2.66 Mt in 2023.
- The 2.8 Mt strike for 2027 reflects modest UAE-base growth; the Century-EGA Inola JV (Oklahoma) starts contributing from 2028 onward and is not material to 2027.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- EGA annual financial results press release https://www.ega.ae/en/
