Will Trump pardon Maduro?
One-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsElectionCrime & JusticeLatin AmericaPolitics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.6%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 2:15 PM UTCJan 4, 30, 2:15 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?
Manifold MarketsWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to capital punishment by US courts
Manifold MarketsMaduro back in power before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nicolas Maduro be prosecuted and sentenced to life in prison before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The Trump Administration has called Maduro's government "illegitimate" and accused the Venezuelan President of being a "narco-terrorist".
- This market resolves YES if Trump grants Maduro a pardon before leaving office.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the White House or Trump's social media accounts.
- The market resolves NO if Trump's presidency ends without such a pardon being issued.
- Trump has taken very different approaches in his relationships with the two men—threatening to deploy military force in an escalating pressure campaign against one, while offering the other clemency, referring to Maduro and former Honduran President Hernández respectively.
