Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to capital punishment by US courts
Latin AmericaOne-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsCrime & Justice3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 77.5%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 3:33 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:33 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Nicolás Maduro is sentenced to capital punishment by any US court before January 1, 2030.
- Clarifications:
- Courts included: Any US federal or state court with jurisdiction
- Sentence timing: Counts when the trial court issues the sentence, regardless of appeals status or subsequent overturn
- Multiple trials: If sentenced in ANY trial, resolves YES (prior acquittals don't matter)
- Does NOT count: International tribunals, foreign courts, or courts with US participation but not US courts proper
