Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 79.7%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 9:19 PM UTCDec 31, 62, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to capital punishment by US courts
Manifold MarketsWill Nicolás Maduro be convicted in a U.S. federal court before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsEdmundo González Urrutia return to Venezuela in 2026?
FutuurMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketMaduro guilty of all counts?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Maduro returns to the country of Venezuela (in any state of capture or health) before he dies.
- Resolves NO if Maduro dies anywhere else in the world outside the boundary of Venezuela before he is seen/verified to be present in his home country again.
- Currently (Jan. 6, 2025) Maduro is held in US custody in Manhattan.
Open markets
Latin AmericaPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $145.4M
- 24h Vol
- $700.9K
POLYMARKETTrump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- December 31-20.5pt8%
- September 30-5.5pt5%
- Total Vol
- $95.8K
- 24h Vol
- $95.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Flávio Bolsonaro-3.0pt88.8%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+1.0pt9.2%
- Renan Santos-0.5pt1%
+15 more outcomes
KALSHIBrazil Presidential election winner?
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt50.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+4.0pt42.1%
- Jair Bolsonaro+0.6pt2.8%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETParaná Governor Election Winner
- Sergio Moro83.8%
- Sandro Alex-2.0pt16.2%
- Requião Filho-0.3pt0%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro85.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez-1.0pt12.4%
- María Corina Machado+0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
- Mercyhurst vs New Mexico
- Piauí Governor Election Winner
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
- Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 9?
- Tucuman vs River Plate
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Nicolás Maduro return to Venezuela in his life??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Nicolás Maduro return to Venezuela in his life? resolve?
- Will Nicolás Maduro return to Venezuela in his life? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2062.
- How is Will Nicolás Maduro return to Venezuela in his life? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Maduro returns to the country of Venezuela (in any state of capture or health) before he dies.