What are the current odds for Will Nicolás Maduro return to Venezuela in his life??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79.7% as of October 25, 2026.

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Will Nicolás Maduro return to Venezuela in his life?

Latin AmericaOne-Off

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 79.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Jan 6, 26, 9:19 PM UTCDec 31, 62, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

Resolves YES if Maduro returns to the country of Venezuela (in any state of capture or health) before he dies.

Resolves NO if Maduro dies anywhere else in the world outside the boundary of Venezuela before he is seen/verified to be present in his home country again.
Currently (Jan. 6, 2025) Maduro is held in US custody in Manhattan.

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Will Nicolás Maduro return to Venezuela in his life?

Will Nicolás Maduro return to Venezuela in his life?

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