Will Nicolás Maduro be convicted in a U.S. federal court before January 1, 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin AmericaCrime & Justice2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 15, 26, 12:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Maduro was arraigned in U.S. federal court on January 5, 2026, with the next court date set for March 17, 2026.
- This market resolves YES if Maduro is convicted on any of the charges in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official court records and public announcements from the U.S. Department of Justice or the court.
- The market resolves NO if Maduro is acquitted, the charges are dismissed, or the trial does not conclude by the deadline.
- Maduro faces charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices.