Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.5%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 3, 26, 6:39 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump fire a Nuke into Iran before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIran Nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsRules
Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards:
- [image]Any use of nuclear weapons in Iran by the US military while Trump is president will result in this market being resolved as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- This is a duplicate of an existing market with the deadline moved forwards 1 year: https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-trump-nuke-iran-before-2027
