Will Trump fire a Nuke into Iran before 2027?
0.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastSportsCricketGeopoliticsUS Politics1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%-0.1pt
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+45.2 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 26, 9:43 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2027 (11:59:59 PM UTC), the United States military, acting under the executive authority or direct order of Donald Trump as President of the United States, detonates a nuclear weapon inside the internationally recognized sovereign territory or airspace of Iran.
- This market resolves to No if Donald Trump leaves office, ceases to be President, or if no such detonation occurs before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will rely on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or United Nations Security Council, corroborated by multiple major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- Conventional strikes, cyber warfare, or covert sabotage of nuclear facilities do not qualify.
- The weapon must be an actual nuclear explosive device detonated inside Iran.
