Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 57.2%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 30, 24, 3:38 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX land on the MOON by Dec 31st 2029?
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Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX land on the MOON before Dec 31st 2028?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if any inhabited Israeli settlements or outposts are present in the current territory of the Gaza Strip on 31 December 2035.
- The legality of these settlements or outposts under Israeli law does not matter for this question to resolve YES.
- Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Military outposts are excluded.
- Only civilian Israeli settlements or outposts count.
- If a military outpost is later converted into a civilian settlement/outpost, it counts only if it is inhabited and present in Gaza on 2035-12-31.
- Update 2025-08-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Edge cases (e.g., a single tent/unauthorized encampment): Counts only if reliable sources classify it as an Israeli outpost.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035? resolve?
- Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if any inhabited Israeli settlements or outposts are present in the current territory of the Gaza Strip on 31 December 2035.