Will the world population be 7 billion or less at any point before 2035?
GeopoliticsOne-OffSociety & Culture8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 8:13 AM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the estimated global human population is officially reported to be 7,000,000,000 (7 billion) or less at any point between the market's creation and December 31, 2034, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- The primary sources of truth for this market are:
- The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) Population Division, specifically via the World Population Prospects database or its official revision reports.
- The U.S. Census Bureau, specifically via the U.S. and World Population Clock or the International Database (IDB).
- Any serious sources or any world event that makes this possible.
