Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.4%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 18, 26, 9:59 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) routinely tracks and projects global demographic shifts.
- As debates around global population growth, resource sustainability, and shifting fertility rates intensify across social platforms, this market tracks a major near-term milestone: the world population officially crossing 8.3 billion.
- ### Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2028, at 00:00 UTC, the United Nations Population Division (or its official real-time data instruments backed by UN DESA) reports or estimates that the global human population has reached or exceeded 8,300,000,000.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2028, provided no such official figure has been published by the UN prior to that date.
- ### Fine Print & Edge Cases
