What are the current odds for Will world population reach 8.3 billion before 2028 according to the UN??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97.4% as of October 28, 2026.

Will world population reach 8.3 billion before 2028 according to the UN?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 97.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 26 minutes ago

Aug 18, 26, 9:59 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) routinely tracks and projects global demographic shifts.

As debates around global population growth, resource sustainability, and shifting fertility rates intensify across social platforms, this market tracks a major near-term milestone: the world population officially crossing 8.3 billion.
### Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2028, at 00:00 UTC, the United Nations Population Division (or its official real-time data instruments backed by UN DESA) reports or estimates that the global human population has reached or exceeded 8,300,000,000.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2028, provided no such official figure has been published by the UN prior to that date.
### Fine Print & Edge Cases