What are the current odds for Will the world's population reach 10 billion people by the end of 2050??

Manifold Markets prices No at 71.1% as of October 25, 2026.

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Will the world's population reach 10 billion people by the end of 2050?

Health & MedicineYearly

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 71.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 30 minutes ago

Apr 21, 23, 7:48 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This question will resolve as YES if the United Nations reports that the world's population has exceeded 10 billion people on or before December 31, 2050.

Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.
The reported population must be based on reliable and verifiable data sources, and not estimates or projections.
The UN must provide an official announcement or report on the matter.
The question does not take into account any potential events or disasters that could significantly impact global population numbers, such as pandemics, natural disasters, or major conflicts.
It is solely based on the reported population number by the UN.

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Will the world's population reach 10 billion people by the end of 2050?

Will the world's population reach 10 billion people by the end of 2050?

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Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by which date?

Anthropic lab leak by which date?

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Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?

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