KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above 9.4 million · —
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Stored price
Above 9.6 million 75.5%Market line of 5 lines
Above 9.6 million 75.5%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$11.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 9.4 millionSpread
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Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 31, 27, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 9.4 million
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Hawaii visitor spending increase YoY in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 9.6 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships, as reported by the State of Hawaii. It does not use visitor days, average daily census, airport passenger throughput, or arrivals to an individual island. Visitors who fly to Hawaii to board a cruise ship are already included in air arrivals and are not separately added again. Resolution uses the first publication containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution. DBEDT’s 2025 total, for example, was 9,642,991 = 9,493,213 by air + 149,778 by cruise ship.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 9.4 million
- If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 9.4 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 9.6 million
- If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 9.6 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 9.8 million
- If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 9.8 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 10.0 million
- If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 10.0 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 10.2 million
- If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 10.2 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
