Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJun 17, 26, 9:25 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the U.S. military attacks Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 3, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what counts as a military attack for resolution purposes:
- Counts (YES): Limited drone or missile strike, sustained bombing, full invasion
- Does NOT count (NO): Covert operatives conducting sabotage/assassination/kidnapping, or arming/directing a proxy group — unless done overtly under the US banner, or they lead to open war