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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

0.5% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS Politics
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
≤47
≤47 27%-0.5%
Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$578.6

Liquidity

$343.1K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

26.0% / 28.0%

Spread

7.7%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+1.5%

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

≤4727%

Rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
  • This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
  • If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
  • If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
  • A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

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Rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
  • This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
  • If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
  • If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
  • A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.