Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
0.1 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability≤47 23.8%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
81 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$215.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.6% / 1.7%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 19, 25, 2:05 AMNov 3, 26, 5:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
≤4724%
Compare venues· 50
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 14% | 0pt | $1.5K | $215.1K | 4 minutes ago | |
 KalshiMost active82% match · verified | High | 16% | +2pt | $3.7K | $183.5K | 24 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
6mo
15.1%
12.3%
12.3%
+12 more outcomes
78 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$258.1K
24h Vol$3.7K
KALSHIRules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
- If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.4k23.0%POLYMARKETYesRememberAmalek26d ago
POLYMARKETYesRememberAmalek26d agoVolume trend
$1.5kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
- If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.