PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Derek Tran (D) · —
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Stored reference
Derek Tran (D) 94.1%
Derek Tran (D) 94.1%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$62.7K
High liquidityOpen interest
$7.3K
Bid / Ask
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Derek Tran (D)Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 28, 26, 4:24 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Derek Tran (D)
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for Derek Tran (D) is 93%. The venue spread is about 2 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference Derek Tran (D) 93% · 3 venues · 2 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — CA-45 House winner? · Derek Tran 93%
- Also available on Gemini — California-45 House Winner · Derek Tran 93%
