Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMike Thompson (D) 73%-2.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-6.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 23, 26, 1:43 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California#District_4
- This resolves yes to the winner of the November election.
- This is for the general election
- Non advancers will resolve no early.
- Dashboard to find markets for other California house primaries: https://manifold.markets/news/california-house-elections-2026?r=SmFjazE
