Current implied probability
Derek Tran 93%
Derek Tran 93%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
91.0% / 95.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Aug 24, 26, 12:48 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Who will win the 2026 U.S. House election in California-45?
- If the named outcome wins the 2026 U.S. House election in CA-45, then this market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome should be verified from the applicable state election authority and widely reported national sources.
- View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F8634b5141fe14d6783a347884150d6bd?alt=media&token=f103a20d-e51f-47f5-ad36-03aaaafec1cc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for Derek Tran (D) is 93%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Derek Tran (D) 93% · 3 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — CA-45 House Election Winner · Derek Tran (D) 93%
- Also available on Kalshi — CA-45 House winner? · Derek Tran 93%
