Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73.9%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 26, 2:03 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump make Cuba an American Territory?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump OR Marco Rubio visit Cuba before Trump’s presidency ends?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketRules
Criteria of resolution: This market resolves YES if US armed forces conduct a publicly acknowledged military operation involving kinetic force in Cuba’s sovereign territory, meaning Cuban land, territorial sea, or national airspace.
- For this market, “US armed forces” includes the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard.
- Official U.S. sources describe territorial sea and the airspace above it as part of a state’s territory, and the standard breadth is up to 12 nautical miles.
- This market resolves NO otherwise.
- Sanctions, embargoes, cyber operations, espionage, covert actions not publicly acknowledged, or threats without actual use of force.
- Routine activity at Guantánamo Bay that does not involve kinetic force directed into Cuban sovereign territory.
