Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 26, 4:29 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
Manifold MarketsWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
PolymarketWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Limitless[PROP BETS] New US-Iran Peace Talks
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first round of official direct or indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran (including mediated talks via third parties like Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan) occurring on or after August 3, 2026, results in a ceasefire agreement that successfully lasts for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Detailed Rules for Resolution:
- Eligible Negotiations: The negotiations must be widely recognized by major international media outlets as official diplomatic efforts (whether direct or indirect/mediated) between representatives of the U.S. and Iran aimed at de-escalation, conflict resolution, or establishing a truce.
- Ceasefire Definition: The negotiations must result in a mutually agreed ceasefire or pause in hostilities.