Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionChessSports1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 22, 25, 11:40 AM UTCSep 25, 28, 11:37 AM UTC
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ForecastExRules
The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028.
- If the ALP gets a majority of seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as they did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.
