Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionChessUS PoliticsSports1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.4%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 21, 25, 6:31 AM UTCJun 30, 28, 6:29 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Labor and the Greens hold a majority of seats in the Australian Senate after the next election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?
Manifold MarketsWill One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?
Manifold MarketsPeople's Party majority in the City Council of Madrid?
KalshiPeople's Party majority in the Assembly of Madrid?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if the Australian Labor Party wins an absolute majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next general election for the House of Representatives in Australia.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO.
- For the purpose of this market:
- An absolute majority of seats means more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives.
- A general election means simultaneous elections for every seat in the House of Representatives (as opposed to a by-election).
