Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?
PoliticsOne-OffChessUS PoliticsElectionSports1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.4%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 26, 4:16 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028.
- If One Nation gets a majority of seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as Labor did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia? resolve?
- Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2028.
- How is Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028.