Will Naftali Bennett become Israel's prime minister after the October 2026 elections?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionMiddle EastChessGeopoliticsSports2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 50 minutes ago
LaggingMay 11, 26, 10:44 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if Naftali Bennett is sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, scheduled for October 2026.
- Otherwise, it resolves to "NO."
- The official outcome will be determined by the formation of a government that receives a vote of confidence from the Knesset, as reported by official Israeli government sources such as the Knesset website or major reputable news outlets (e.g., The Times of Israel, Haaretz, Reuters).
- If the election results in a government where Bennett does not hold the position of Prime Minister, the market resolves to "NO."
