Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.3%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 24, 25, 9:06 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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LimitlessRules
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/will-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-weapon
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).