Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMay 13, 26, 4:08 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a consensus of major intelligence agencies (such as the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence) officially confirms that Iran has successfully produced, tested, or acquired a fully functional nuclear weapon on or before December 31, 2027.
- If no such confirmation is made by this date, or if international authorities determine that Iran has not achieved this capability, the market resolves to NO.
- In the event of conflicting official reports, the market will resolve based on the assessment provided by the IAEA.
- Iran’s nuclear program has been a subject of intense international scrutiny for decades.
- Since the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has progressively increased its uranium enrichment levels.
Open markets
CommoditiesKALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.175099%
- Above 4.160099%
- Above 4.170099%
+26 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $460.1K
- 24h Vol
- $459.9K
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.900099%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $230.5K
- 24h Vol
- $230.4K
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIOhio gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.900099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $91.2K
- 24h Vol
- $91.2K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1400+25.0pt99%
- Above 4.1200+10.0pt99%
- Above 4.0800+5.0pt99%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Illinois gas prices tomorrow
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Brent crude oil price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 8, 2026
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Pennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria