Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.4%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 3, 23, 7:40 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Includes both offensive detonations and "tests" used to intimidate people.
- Any country could be the progenitor as long as it's clearly mostly about the Israel-Hamas conflict or whatever larger conflict grows out of that.
- (e.g. Russia launching a missile at Ukraine does not count, but Russia launching a missile at Israel does count.)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028? resolve?
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Includes both offensive detonations and "tests" used to intimidate people.