Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.7%
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Updated 20 minutes ago
Jun 10, 24, 4:08 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 3:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The detonation of nuclear weapons in combat has not occurred since World War II, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the last instances.
- However, the threat of nuclear conflict remains due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like North Korea, Russia, and the United States.
- International treaties and diplomatic efforts aim to prevent nuclear proliferation and use.
- Historical Context: No combat use since 1945; numerous close calls and tensions during the Cold War and beyond.
- Factors to Consider: Geopolitical developments, arms control treaties, and regional conflicts.
- Data Sources: Reports from international bodies like the IAEA, UN, and strategic think tanks.