Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.7%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 24, 4:08 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
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The detonation of nuclear weapons in combat has not occurred since World War II, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the last instances.
- However, the threat of nuclear conflict remains due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like North Korea, Russia, and the United States.
- International treaties and diplomatic efforts aim to prevent nuclear proliferation and use.
- Historical Context: No combat use since 1945; numerous close calls and tensions during the Cold War and beyond.
- Factors to Consider: Geopolitical developments, arms control treaties, and regional conflicts.
- Data Sources: Reports from international bodies like the IAEA, UN, and strategic think tanks.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030? resolve?
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The detonation of nuclear weapons in combat has not occurred since World War II, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the last instances.