Will France cut off funding to Ukraine in 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsElectionRussia / UkraineEurope1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.3%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 18, 26, 4:53 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the French government officially halts or terminates direct state funding to Ukraine at any point during calendar year 2027 (January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027, UTC).
- For the purpose of resolution:
- "Direct state funding" includes bilateral financial aid, budgetary grants, direct loans, or dedicated bilateral reconstruction and defense assistance funds financed by the French state (such as the Fonds de soutien à l'Ukraine or funding via Agence Française de Développement).
- A policy decision or executive order completely ending or indefinitely freezing bilateral financial disbursements to Ukraine satisfies the condition for YES.
- A standard expiration of a pre-scheduled multi-year program does not trigger YES unless accompanied by an explicit French government decision or executive declaration to stop, suspend, or block future funding to Ukraine.
