Will Russia introduce exit visas by the end of 2026
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 12, 26, 8:23 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, the Russian Federation officially enacts legislation or a government decree that introduces a general exit visa (or travel permit) requirement for Russian citizens seeking to travel abroad.
- To trigger a YES resolution, the requirement must:
- Apply to the general population of Russian citizens (or a broad subset, such as any citizen traveling to "unfriendly" or NATO countries).
- Require citizens to obtain prior official government permission, an exit visa, or approval before they are legally allowed to cross the border to leave Russia.
- This market will resolve to NO if:
