Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
GeopoliticsOne-OffWeatherRussia / UkraineChina19y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.9%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Sep 25, 23, 2:21 PM UTCJan 1, 46, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
China has already depleted most of its natural resources, so is becoming increasingly less self-sufficient.
- The growing need for supplies of vital imports including fossil fuels, food, and freshwater will place increasing strain on the PRC.
- This challenge will focus on China’s growing shortage of freshwater, and the implication of a possible land grab in the southeast of Russia where Lake Baikal is located.
- The rationale for this potential outcome is that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that will have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic freshwater supplies.
- Factors leading to this impending catastrophe include water-intensive practices of multinational corporations operating in China, inefficient manufacturing, construction, and agriculture processes, and the impact of climate change.
- The Chinese government is making every effort to mitigate the crisis through water imports and desalination.