Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.6%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 26, 3:33 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 2:23 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States lose the war against Iran?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Between two weeks and two months after the end of the current conflict, I will create a poll reading as follows:
- "In your view, did the United States of America lose its war with Iran? You may define terms as you wish, but two clarifications are important:
- Iran does not have to have won in order for America to have lost, although Iran's victory or lack thereof may be a factor in consideration.
- Even if the war was ill conceived or foolish, it is possible to win it, and even if a war is wise or sensible it is possible to lose it.
- In other words "did America win" is a separate question to "do you think America was right to go to war".
- If there is serious argument about whether the war is ended, I will clarify that by poll .